Some bold, cold predictions for the 2002 PGA season.

Photos by Richard Pitnick

My friend, the late, great golf writer Dick Taylor, used to abhor predictions about winners of golf tournaments. But being his editor at the time, and knowing that predictions make good (if not accurate) copy, I''d persist.

"Only a fool makes predictions," Dick would tell me, meaning, "Only a foolish editor like you would make me do this."

When pressed, Dick would say "Jack Nicklaus" every time. "He wins more than anybody else."

In today''s golf world, Dick''s money would be on Tiger Woods. Dick was a smart guy. Those of us here on the Monterey Peninsula would be hard-pressed to predict any other winner of an event at Pebble Beach. Tiger''s dominance of the 2000 U.S. Open at Pebble was nothing short of stunning. Plus, his miracle comeback from seven back to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am that same year, and his sense of golf history at this historic venue make Woods the odds-on favorite every time he tees it up here.

He plays Pebble Beach like he owns it, as did Nicklaus. Remember Arnold Palmer''s classic line about Nicklaus after the Golden Bear won the first tournament he played at Pebble? "Jack Nicklaus came to the forest and shot Robin Hood," Palmer said. Woods'' play at Pebble splits the arrow in Robin Hood''s chest.

But wait, at the risk of making my friend Dick roll in his grave like a Titleist on a tightly mowed green, I must ask: Is Tiger the favorite at this year''s AT&T? I''d have to say no.

Watching him play last year and early this year reminds me that even a millimeter off in the golf swing is the difference between the winner''s circle and Dante''s first circle of hell. It'' s the difference between finishing in the top 19 and celebrating in Club IXX. And well, from what I can see, Tiger is a millimeter off with his swing.

Although I''ll take the fifth (something with which John Daly is quite familiar) on making a bold guess at a winner this weekend, I will give you my thoughts on who to look out for in 2002: (drumroll, please)

SERGIO GARCIA The young Spaniard will have a breakout year. He''s had all the skill and loads of dramatics the past few years, but now he''s got the maturity to win. He already has one win under his belt in 2002, the Mercedes Championship at Kapalua. Last year--two wins, zero majors. This year--four wins, one major.

DAVID TOMS Now 35 years old, Toms started sizzling last season. He shows no signs of letting up in 2002 and, like Tom Lehman a couple of years ago, when a journeyman gets it going in the right direction, it''s hard to slow him down. He does not show much flash, took a long time to surface, and now all he does is win or get close. Last year--three wins, one major. This year--five wins, one major.

PHIL MICKELSON--Phil the Thrill, the Wizard of Wedge, call him what you will, this guy''s got game. With 20 wins notched in his belt since he joined the PGA Tour is 1992, his place in the Hall of Fame is only waiting for his first elusive major win. I think he''ll get it this year. His head is the only part of his game he''s still working on--the rest is solid. His family is in shape (second child just born) and he''s living back home in his native state of California. Last year--two wins, zero majors. This year--four wins, one major.

DAVIS LOVE III--The defending champ of the AT&T is too good for the kind of year he''s been having. Prior to the 2001 AT&T, Love had not won on tour since 1998, and only once that year. He hangs around the top 10 of many tournaments, but it''s been mainly salad and little champagne. What gives with Davis Love? Hard to say. Despite having the facial expression one would expect on a slow summer day, he works hard on his game. Perhaps it''s passion and a fire in the belly he''s been lacking. Maybe his 1997 PGA Championship victory gave him exactly what he wanted in life so there''s nothing left to prove. But I think not. I think he comes back strong in 2002. Last year--one win, zero majors. This year--four wins, one major.

DAVID DUVAL Duval falls into the same category as Love: He''s too good to have off years in succession. In 1998 and ''99 he logged four wins per year. In 2000 and 2001 he dropped off to one win per year. Granted, his win in 2001 was a big one: the British Open Championship, but he should be carving his name in stone at this stage of his career, not in the sand. Last year--one win, one major. This year--three wins, zero majors.

FRED COUPLES OK, so it''s wishful thinking. But Fred is such a likable fellow. His last win on Tour was 1998. But his back is now healed and he just could get that magic back into his game. Is that too much to ask? I''m afraid so. Last year--zero wins, zero majors. This year--zero wins, zero majors.

So while Dick Taylor will laugh at me from his easy chair on high, and someone unnamed and unconsidered makes me into the fool by winning the AT&T and two majors this year, I''ll hold to my predictions about the year as a whole.

So tuck them into your side drawer and look at them again next October. Then you can laugh at me too.